Saturday, January 5, 2008

Updated exit polls

The Georgian exit polling group, composed of reputable organizations but so far proving hasty, released updated results putting Saakashvili up to a 53.8% projected win.

Here's the rest:
Gachechiladze: 28.3%
Patarkatsishvili: 6.2%
Gamkrelidze: 3.6%
Natelashvili: 5.6%
Saakashvili: 53.8%
Maisashvili: 0.9%
Sarishvili: 0.4%
All projected with a 27.9% nonresponse rate.

We also have the first exit poll results for the two plebiscites on the ballot:
NATO membership: 61% for, 17.7% against, 21.3% no answer
Parliamentary election in spring: 63.6% for, 15% against, 20.5% no answer

They seem to have included the nonresponse rate as part of the total, rather than projecting the way those respondents would break as they did with the candidates' results.

The very first parallel vote tabulation results have also come out, but only for 12 of 150 precincts in Zugdidi, the last large town on the way to secessionist Abkhazia. The results are not significant in a national sense yet, but the pace they are being counted up tells us we should have full numbers tomorrow.

New Generation-New Initiative's PVT in 12 of 150 Zugidi precincts:

Gachechiladze: 11.4%
Patarkatsishvili: 3.72%
Gamkrelidze: 3.55%
Natelashvili: 2.9%
Saakashvili: 71.58%
Maisashvili: 0.5%
Sarishvili: 0.11%

And my apologies, just realized none of your comments have been getting through. They're on the blog now, and I'll be answering questions as I can. Please keep 'em coming.


At January 6, 2008 at 12:25 AM , Blogger HansG said...

I think the exit poll consortium would have done themselves (and the public) a favour by representing that data out of 100, i.e. show the non-response rate embedded. The truth is, nobody knows how these 28% voted, and it would be good if the public then could make up their own mind about what they think the 28% did.

(Winston, not a criticim of your work, which is very useful.)

At January 6, 2008 at 12:39 AM , Blogger HansG said...

and to offer this to everyone, rounded to the full figure since the margin of error is too high to speculate on what's behind a comma.

Gachechiladze 20
Patarkatsishvili 4
Gamkrelide 3
Natelashvili 4
Saakashvili 39
Maisashvili 1
Saarishvili 0
Non-response 28

Now everybody can make up their own mind about what they think non-response means.


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