Sunday, January 6, 2008

Another look at the exit poll

Hans Gutbrod, a seasoned hand when it comes to Georgian elections, posted some very helpful comments regarding the Rustavi2/GFSIS/et al exit poll which shows Saakashvili grabbing a narrow victory tonight:

"I think the exit poll consortium would have done themselves (and the public) a favour by representing that data out of 100, i.e. show the non-response rate embedded. The truth is, nobody knows how these 28% voted, and it would be good if the public then could make up their own mind about what they think the 28% did.

[...] And to offer this [calculation of data out of 100] to everyone, rounded to the full figure since the margin of error is too high to speculate on what's behind a comma:

Gachechiladze 20
Patarkatsishvili 4
Gamkrelide 3
Natelashvili 4
Saakashvili 39
Maisashvili 1
Saarishvili 0
Non-response 28

Now everybody can make up their own mind about what they think non-response means."


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